Stratfor.com's Global Intelligence Update - 17 August 2000
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Know your world.

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Iran's Irony: An Islamic Radical Leads Reformists

Summary

The reformist majority in Iran's Majlis, or parliament, has
selected as its leader Ali Akbar Mohtashami, long a reputed figure
behind terrorist operations against the United States, the official
news agency IRNA reported on Aug. 15. His leadership will appeal to
Iran's conservative clerics and quiet the noisy public debate over
economic and political change. His role will probably harm efforts
to re-establish economic and political ties with the United States,
to the advantage of Europe.

Analysis

Ali Akbar Mohtashami, a figure reportedly behind efforts to export
Islamic fundamentalism from Iran, has been selected to lead the
reformist majority in the Iranian Majlis, or parliament. The
reformists control 180 of the parliament's 290 seats, and include
several ideological factions.

In domestic terms, the appointment is a compromise between
reformist President Mohammad Khatami and Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei. Mohtashami and other similar appointments to
government will move to quell the noisy public debate over
political and economic change by allowing elites to settle these
disputes out of the public eye. Mohtashami's appointment will also
damage efforts to improve ties with Washington to the benefit of
European governments and companies.

As ambassador to Syria from 1980 to 1985, Mohtashami played a key
role in establishing the Lebanese Hezbollah, a militant Shiite
group opposed to Israel's occupation of southern Lebanon. During
that period, he organized the supply of large quantities of arms
and cash to develop Hezbollah operations, according to Jane's
Intelligence Review.
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Mohtashami also had ties to Islamic Jihad, a former terrorist wing
of Hezbollah responsible for most of the kidnappings of Western
nationals in Lebanon from 1984 to 1989. In 1995, the Scottish Daily
Record cited U.S. Air Force's Air Intelligence Agency files
reporting that Mohtashami funded the bombing of PanAm flight 103,
killing 270 people over Lockerbie, Scotland.

As an overture to the United States, former Iranian President Ali
Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani removed Mohtashami from power in 1992. But
Mohtashami made headlines again in 1995 after claiming he had
documents on the bombing of PanAm flight 103 "which would embarrass
both the U.S. and Israel." Mohtashami's return to politics came in
1998, when he announced his candidacy for parliament.

Mohtashami's new appointment comes at a crucial time in the debate
between reformists, who advocate everything from significant
political change to liberal economic trade with the West, and
conservatives, who fear social upheaval. After three years and
numerous frustrations, reformists led by Khatami are under pressure
to compromise with conservative clerics, led by Supreme leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Those who advocate secularism have not
gained traction in this debate.
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For more on Iran, see:
http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/countries/Iran/default.htm
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The complex debate in Tehran is increasingly layered with the
country's mired economic condition. The debate is not about whether
an Islamic government should exist. Rather, the question is whether
Islam should take precedence over economics, and to what degree.
The president is trying to stress that reform does not mean
adopting, or even condoning, the ways of the West. It simply means
certain changes are necessary to attract Western capital and
political support.

Increasingly, it appears the debate will lead Iran to seek Western
capital and political support from Europe, instead of Washington.
On Aug. 16, shortly after Mohtashami's appointment, Khamenei - who
has final say on all matters - ruled out re-opening ties with the
United States, according to IRNA. Iran will have to find less
judgmental investors - such as the French and other Europeans - to
achieve an acceptable middle ground.

With Mohtashami's appointment, the president is seeking common
ground with the supreme leader for launching less ambitious and
sweeping reforms, more focused on economic than social change.

Despite his personal history, Mohtashami is a self-declared
reformist, though no friend of the United States. His past will
appeal to conservatives and inspire their confidence. He will not
engage in anything remotely anti-Islamic or threatening to the
regime.

The appointment may improve the atmosphere of domestic politics but
Iran's foreign policy and rapprochement with the United States will
suffer. In Tehran today, foreign policy takes a back seat to
domestic politics.
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For more on the Middle East & Africa, see:
http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/default.htm
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