From: Eurasia Research Center
Date: Fri Aug 4, 2000 6:12pm
Subject: Fw: uighur-l Turkmenistan: The New Hermit Kingdom
----- Original Message -----
From: "Mavlan Yasin" MYasin@u...
To: "Urghur list (E-mail)" Uighur-l@t...
Sent: Friday, July 28, 2000 7:31 AM
Subject: uighur-l Turkmenistan: The New Hermit Kingdom
From: Mavlan Yasin MYasin@U...
Turkmenistan: The New Hermit Kingdom
27 July 2000
Summary
The leader of a key former Soviet republic, Turkmenistan, has isolated his country from the international community more than the deserts of Central Asia. In addition to his adoption of the title ?urkmenbashi???ather of All Turkmen??President Saparmurat Niyazov has recently instituted a series of new laws on banking and education that will dramatically increase the seclusion of this state, important for its vast supplies of natural gas. Iran as a result, will gain in political and economic power in the region.
Analysis
Turkmenistan has always been Central Asia? odd man out. This year, President Saparmurat Niyazov? cult of personality has only served to deepen Turkmenistan? isolation. It began on Dec. 28, 1999 when Niyazov proclaimed himself president for life. Niyazov? cult of personality has become even more encompassing ?and stifling ?by making both of his long-dead parents national heroes. Completing the isolation, on June 21 Turkmenistan began
registering and monitoring all foreigners.
On the economic front as well, the president has moved to isolate his country of five million people. Turkmen citizens were barred from holding foreign bank accounts on June 21, and the last Internet provider was forced to close on June 30. On July 20 Niyazov announced a new policy: All potential university students would be screened ?back three generations ?to filter out all but ?he most worthy?applicants. Students previously approved to study in the United States have been barred from departing.
All told, these measures efficiently prevent most legitimate cross-border contact, discourage investment and torpedo economic development. Consequently, the West will not have much to do with such an introverted regime. Already, two Western firms interested in Turkmenistan? four trillion cubic meter natural gas deposits, General Electric and Bechtel, have withdrawn their participation from the U.S-backed Transcaspian pipeline project; now only Royal Dutch Shell remains.
The question now becomes who else wants a take of the Turkmenbashi? Turkmenistan? One possibility is the old imperial master: Russia. Russia and Turkmenistan recently renewed a deal in which Turkmenistan will supply Russia with gas. But in the long term, Moscow is more interested in developing its own than paying high prices for unpredictable supplies of Turkmen gas. Turkmenistan is cool on close relations as well. It is the only
Central Asian state not participating in the Russia-led security structures in the region. Ashgabat has even refused to join the rest of the regional powers in opposing the Taliban.
Kazakstan would like to use Turkmenistan as a transit state for oil and gas exports to either the Persian Gulf or Turkey. But both deals depend first upon the support of Tehran. Iran is Turkmenistan? natural associate, if not partner, for a number of reasons. Nearly all of Turkmenistan? population lies along its border with Iran. Even under sanctions, Iran can provide Turkmenistan with what few consumer goods the Turkmenbashi deems
appropriate.
More importantly, Iran is the natural choice for export routes for Turkmen petroleum. Already one small pipeline, Korpedje-Kurt-Kui, brings Turkmen natural gas to Iranian markets. Larger potential projects include liquefying Turkmen gas for re-export via the Persian Gulf and a large pipeline to supply Turkey directly via Iran.
The price for this cooperation is clear ?and seems one the Turkmenbashi is willing to pay. Turkmenistan is to side with Iran on Caspian issues. After all, the Caspian Sea holds one of the world? largest concentrations of petroleum deposits, yet a decade after the Soviet breakup, the legal status of the Caspian Sea is still unresolved.
On July 25, Turkmenistan? foreign minister, Boris Shikjmuradov, stated that Turkmenistan would never negotiate the status of the Caspian unless Iran takes part. Previously, Russia had attempted to band the former Soviet states together to defeat Iran? claims to a greater share of the sea. Also, since Turkmenistan is still on speaking terms with the Taliban, Ashgabat has the potential to be a valuable contact for Tehran on Afghan issues.
Turkmenistan has efficiently severed its contacts to the outside world. What few links remain go to Russia and Iran, and only Iran seems to have any interest in or capability to establish more. It is Iran, therefore, that will have the most influence over this remote ?but valuable ?corner of Central Asia.
