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May 5, 2000

ANALYST WARNS OF CHEMICAL AND BIOLOGICAL ATTACKS

http://www.vny.com/cf/News/upidetail.cfm?QID=84123

Friday, 5 May 2000 15:08 (ET)

Analyst warns of chemical and bioligical attacks

By LOU MARANO

WASHINGTON, May 5 (UPI) -- Americans should come to grips with the possibility of a chemical or biological attack while the threat is still low, a national security analyst says in a new report.

The U.S. homeland is vulnerable, and such attacks offer weaker states the greatest chance of success with the least risk of retaliation, writes Anthony H. Cordesman. Some key technologies are evolving in ways that favor the attacker, he says in "Defending America: Redefining the Conceptual Borders of Homeland Defense."

Cordesman, a senior fellow for strategic assessment at the Center for Strategic and International Studies here, favors a flexible plan for a wide spectrum of threats over time rather than a limited plan for one or two contingencies. It is now difficult for the United States to anticipate the nature of future attacks, especially if it has to deal with multiple assaults combined with information warfare and follow-on attackers savvy to U.S. countermeasures, he says.

In the event of covert strikes, it may take weeks, months or years to firmly identify an attacker.

"The strongest single recommendation in this report is that there be one central point in the federal government charged with developing a budget overview of current programs, an analysis of their future year costs and deployment costs, relevance to the threat, and measures of effectiveness," Cordesman writes.

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