I am betting this recent sell off since Jan 1st is temporary. Just hedge fund and institution managers taking profits for '99 this year because the taxes are not due 'til '01.
My theory is there is alot of engineering by institutions (broker houses) and major momentum players to manipulate financial market moves (up or down) that are exaggerated more than they otherwise would be.
Read this page on my site to get an idea of what I am talking about:
http://www.angelfire.com/biz/oci/livetrademayer.html
The key to predicting short term market direction recently has been the Euro:
http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/chart?SCHEME=FSB&CONT=ECH00
If the Euro begins to retrace from its recent rise against the dollar, which is probable, part or all of that 600 billion that just deflated the markets will return with a vengeance, and more.
It appears the central banks have been intervening in the currency markets for what reason I have not a clue just now...
"Tokyo--Jan 6--The US dollar yielded to offers from Japanese exporters to dip to 103.98 yen, but sizable bids from various US banks kept the US currency firm above 104.00. Weaker Japanese stocks also assisted. Later, the dollar hit a 6 week high of 104.75 yen as Japanese interbank players and investors joined in the fray. The Euro also surged to a 6 week high of 108.22 yen on bids from European banks and Japanese trust banks, which in turn buoyed the euro to a 7 week high of $1.0363."
If this is temporary, and the dollar recovers, watch for a rapid recovery perhaps today, but especially Friday (unemployment report biggie). I am predicting a super market friendly report and market bounce back until the end of January.
The Fed meets the first of February, and the market fears they will hike. A hike is already built into the credit markets, so the bottom is in there for now. Technical charts show major support:
http://www.futuresource.com/cgi-bin/chart?SCHEME=FSB&CONT=USH00
See the lower bottoms and lower highs? Fridays report will reverse the downward spiral for bonds.
But the wild card is how much will the Fed's withdrawing of excess liquidity for Y2K (500 billion) will be a negative. I will go out on a limb and say if it is a factor, it will be discounted until the end of January at least.
As for a depression, I do not think the NWO is ready to pull the plug, just yet anyway. Y2K has come and gone for the most part. The NWO would have made the financial house of cards tumble then, if that was on their agenda.
If war comes, it will result from some rogue nation or individual starting the nuclear dominoes falling by suitcase bomb and/or bio-chem terrorism. As you may recall vis-a-vis the Mexico, Asia, Long Term Capital bailouts (courtesy of the taxpayer) by the US Central Bank, World Bank, and IMF, the Fed stands ready to use public money to provide liquidity overtly to ease the perception of a crisis, and covertly with select houses buying bonds or stocks on the Fed's behalf if circumstances warrant.
