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THE ULTIMATE WEAPON: THE NEW EURO OIL-BOURSE OF IRAN...
And here we go again. Forget about those lies you are told on "Chicken-noodle-News" about 911, WoMD, Saddam-Monsters and Iran's "nooklear facilities"...
...But CNN told you a different story. Over and over, night after night you were reminded that Saddam Hussein was a monster. He was sitting on a massive cache of destructive weapons that threatened your safety. He was intimately linked to Al Qaida and global terror. Carefully crafted stories by embedded reporters and film footage of US and British troops moving triumphantly towards Baghdad made the while thing seem larger than life.
Now, fast forward to December 2005. As I write this edition of the Meridian Report, there is a growing sense of deja-vu. This time, it is Iran that is causing problems. But, CNN will have you believe that Iran is causing nuclear problems by refusing to scale back its nuclear program. The real story is that by March 2006 Iran is threatening to have in place an entity called the Iranian Oil Bourse. Trading of Oil on this exchange will be denominated in – yes you guessed it – Euros. A well choreographed play from Saddam’s little black book of game day strategies. The Iranian Oil Bourse will go toe to toe and compete for global prominence with NYMEX in New York and the International Petroleum Exchange in London. Oil trading on these exchanges is done in US Dollar terms. That is why when we hear a quote given for Oil it is always basis the US Dollar. Oil is the lifeblood of the global economy, the US Dollar is the global reserve currency and Oil is quoted in US Dollar terms. A simple 1-2-3 argument.
But this simple 1-2-3 argument may be about to come under attack. A successful start-up of trading operations on this Bourse could lead to an erosion of the US Dollar. Hence this Bourse is a de facto weapon. A weapon so ferocious, that has the ability to undermine the entire US economy, and topple the US Dollar from its lofty perch. After all, why would Oil importing nations need to keep as many US Dollars in reserve if they can purchase Oil in Euros? The ramifications of a weakened US Dollar are serious. Global purchasers of US debt instruments may begin to shy away from a weaker currency in favor of Euro denominated debt instruments. This would place upward pressure on US interest rates and the serious imbalance of the US economy would be laid bare for all to see (as if we don’t already see it). After all, the US has no choice but to keep foreign investors interested in buying US debt. Management of the trade deficit and budget deficit depends on it. The housing market would surely collapse under the weight of higher interest rates. With mortgage rates now above 6% we are already seeing the signs of weakness of the housing market. Now imagine mortgage rates at 8% or even 9%. Given this scenario, it should come as little surprise that China recently moved all of a sudden to re-position its Renminbi currency away from the US Dollar and instead to a basket of global currencies. The Chinese are definitely not stupid. They have excellent relations with Iran and are well aware of the threat this new Bourse poses. Notice how the Chinese still have not told us the exact makeup of this basket? However, you can bet the Euro figures very prominently in the weighting of this basket.
With Operation Iraqi Freedom seemingly stuck in the mud and going nowhere what is the US to do? Sadly, the answer may be that there is little the US can do. The most powerful military force on the planet may be paralyzed. A simple Bourse – an exchange where Oil is bought and sold – may prove to be the ultimate weapon...
