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The crater could point towards both. A missile with great kinetic energy homing in from above - or a buried device. The 'effect´would be (almost) the same...
There are some missiles you wouldn't hear before they explode. They can be made of materials, TOTALLY dissolving in the blast – as some fiber-components might do. They penetrate the soil too.
But as I said, in the cause of a Nuke - how to know – AT LEAST a FEW DAYS ahead (regarding some necessary preparation BEFORE) – WHERE to bury it....
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