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Three million would die in "limited" nuclear war over Kashmir
15:05 24 May 02
NewScientist.com news service
A minimum of three million people would be killed and 1.5 million seriously injured if even a "limited" nuclear war broke out between India and Pakistan, warns a new study uncovered by New Scientist.
The estimates are comprised of the immediate casualty list from blast, fire and radiation if only a tenth of both countries' nuclear weapons were exploded above 10 of their largest cities. It does not take account of the inevitable suffering that would result from the loss of homes, hospitals, water and energy supplies, or the cancers that could develop in future years.
[snip]
The US and Asian nuclear researchers investigated the impact of 10 explosions similar to that detonated by the US over the Japanese city of Hiroshima in 1945. They assume that five 15-kilotonne bombs explode 600 metres above Bangalore, Bombay, Calcutta, Madras and New Delhi in India, while another five explode above Faisalabad, Islamabad, Karachi, Lahore and Rawalpindi in Pakistan.
They conclude that hundreds of thousands of people would be killed or badly injured in every city, amounting to 2.6 million in India and 1.8 million in Pakistan. The prospect is credible and devastating, warns M V Ramana one of the researchers from Princeton University, New Jersey and an expert on nuclear policy in India.
[snip]
Estimates of the size of India and Pakistan's nuclear arsenals vary widely, though the most reliable are those that are founded on their stockpiles of weapons-grade plutonium and uranium.
The Institute for Science and International Security in Washington DC suggests that India has about 65 warheads made from 310 kilograms of plutonium, while Pakistan has around 40 made from 690 kilograms of uranium.
[snip]
If bombs explode on the ground instead of in the air, the resulting radioactive dust could kill people across hundreds of square kilometres, Albright points out. And because the prevailing winds are from the west, India is more likely to become the victim of its own fall-out than Pakistan.
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